Spanish Pundit (II)

diciembre 16, 2007

La Rusia post-Putin: más Putin, más represión y más misiles

Así titula Christian Science Monitor su artículo sobre Putin y la elección de Medvedev como su sucesor:

Mr. Putin has endorsed a young loyalist and admirer who owes his career as first deputy prime minister and head of the state gas monopoly to his mentor. That Mr. Medvedev is a former law professor and not a former KGB man (as Putin is), makes him easier to control, because he has no powerful security faction to defend him.

Of course, the youthful Medvedev – slimmer, more dapper, and a more polished speaker than a year ago – still needs to be elected. But with the state and Putin (now one and the same) behind him, that’s a done deal.

Exactly how Putin will perpetuate his influence is immaterial. He might become prime minister after his two terms as president expire next year, as Medvedev this week proposed. He might not. But Putin should be taken at his word that he intends to exercise power based on his “moral mandate,” which is firmly anchored in his overwhelming popularity.

This week, analysts characterized Medvedev as a milder Putin with democratic credentials and a more cooperative attitude toward the West. Somehow, his Deep Purple rock-music collection is supposed to buttress this view, but remember, Yuri Andropov loved American jazz, and what difference did that make?

Medvedev’s comments this week point to continuity, not divergence, from the Russia that Putin has built. He praised his friend’s eight-year record, saying Putin had rescued the country from “collapse” and “civil war.” The world’s attitude toward Russia has also changed, he said. “We are not being treated like schoolchildren. People respect us and reckon with us.”

¿Se hizo con Rusia algo parecido a Alemania después de la I Guerra Mundial? Esa búsqueda del orgullo patrio, es algo que muchos rusos afirman. Habría que considerarlo, pero en estas cosas siempre hay más de victimismo que de realidad objetiva.

Más sobre esta cuestión: The perils of Putinism:

The President has made himself indispensable to keeping the peace among his boyars. The 42-year-old Mr. Medvedev holds no sway over the influential Kremlin group of siloviky–the ex-KGB men around Mr. Putin, a KGB colonel himself–or the security services as a whole. To them, as well presumably to Mr. Putin, Mr. Medvedev’s remarkable features are his loyalty and lack of any evident charisma. An added bonus for Mr. Putin is that his choice of sidekick-in-chief was hailed abroad as a “liberal”–which is only true compared to the other candidates floated in recent months. Mr. Medvedev’s first comments Tuesday were so deferential to Mr. Putin that no doubt was left about who will stay boss.

Eso sí, todavía hay algunos que dicen [link in English] que la democracia rusa “es un trabajo en desarrollo“. La verdad es que cada vez se distancia más de cualquier tipo de democracia conocida, al no haber oposición y los partidos más importantes, encabezados por “United Russia”, el partido de Putin y su más del 60% de apoyo en las últimas elecciones, son todos favorables al Kremlin, salvo los desdentados comunistas.

Tanto se está alejando de la democracia que hay otro activista anti-Putin ingresado en una clínica psiquiátrica:

Artem Basyrov, 20, was detained by two plainclothes officers and ordered held in a hospital in the central region of Mari El on Nov. 23, a day before a planned demonstration, said Alexander Averin, of the opposition National Bolshevik Party. The party is part of the Other Russia coalition, which organized the so-called “Dissenters Marches” around Russia. Basyrov had run for the local legislature as an Other Russia candidate.

A local psychiatric board agreed with police, who alleged that said Basyrov had assaulted a girl, and concluded he was suffering from some mental illness. Basyrov was finally transferred from an isolation ward and allowed to have visitors on Thursday, said Mikhail Klyuzhev, a National Bolshevik member from the city of Yoshkar-Ola. Basyrov was still being held in the hospital Friday. Klyuzhev called the allegations “idiocy.”

Se le acusa de haber asaltado a una chica y después se le declara loco y se le ingresa en un psiquiátrico. Todo muy conveniente teniendo en cuenta que el chico (sólo tiene 20 años) se había presentado a las legislativas y es uno de los que tradicionalmente organizan “Marchas de Disidentes” por Rusia. Su partido es precisamente Otra Rusia, el partido de Kasparov, que ha sido eliminado de la política al no poder arrendar una sala en Moscú para la convención del partido Otra Rusia h/t The Moderate Voice:

After a campaign run mostly as a protest of the regime’s near autocratic succession system, Mr. Kasparov has been forced out of the race for failing to rent a hall in Moscow in which to hold his party’s nominating convention. Though a spokesman claims that the city-wide refusal to rent a space to Mr. Kasparov’s party, Other Russia, reflects an explicit order from above, it’s just as likely that property owners are simply smart enough not to risk entangling themselves with Mr. Kasparov’s coalition of opposition figures at a time when the Putin government is decreasingly tolerant of dissent.

Una caso semejante al ocurrido con la periodista rusa Larisa Arap hace unos meses, por ejemplo. Al menos ella fue liberada a los pocos días.

Para que veamos otro efecto más del problema demográfico ruso (que ya vimos respecto de China), resulta que cada vez hay más rusos musulmanes que van a la peregrinación a la Meca:

MOSCOW: Gulsine Fatakhudinova, a 56-year-old Tatar Muslim, came lugging suitcases to pray at the lime-green mosque in central Moscow – one of dozens of people who arrived one recent day, bundled in weighty coats, fur hats and other winter garb that they would soon cast off, at least temporarily.

Barred by the Soviets for decades from carrying out the most sacred rite of Islam, they were among the tens of thousands of Russian Muslims traveling this year to Saudi Arabia to join the masses in Mecca for the annual pilgrimage, or hajj, to one of Islam’s holiest sites. Their numbers have swelled in the past several years, thanks largely to Russia’s growing wealth and increasing stability in the predominantly Muslim North Caucasus region, including Chechnya, where the effects of nearly a decade of war have begun to fade.

[…] The Soviet government allowed just 18 people a year to make the trip, said Rushan Abbyasov, director of international relations at the Russian Council of Muftis. Now, the only restrictions on the number of pilgrims come from Saudi Arabia, which is host to the hajj.

This year, the Saudis increased the quota for Russian pilgrims to 26,000 people from 20,000, and despite estimated costs of $2,000 to $3,000 per person for the trip, Abbyasov said, all visas allotted for this year have been claimed. Chechnya is sending about 3,000 pilgrims for the five-day pilgrimage, which began Sunday.

Durante el régimen soviético, sólo se permitía hacer la peregrinación a la Meca a 18 personas al año. Ahora sólo impone restricciones Arabia Saudí, que este año ha incrementado la cuota de 20.000 a 26.000 personas. Y, a pesar de un coste de entre 2.000 y 3.000 personas por viaje, todas las plazas se han cubierto. Chechenia ha mandado a 3000 peregrinos para los 5 días de peregrinación.

Curioso, el dato de Chechenia, teniendo en cuenta el altísimo nivel de desempleo de esta república rusa:

The level of unemployment is high, hovering between 60 and 70 percent. Despite economic improvements, smuggling and bartering still comprise a significant part of Chechnya’s economy.[8]

Como siempre, sería interesante saber cómo han conseguido dinero para el viaje. Pero no nos preocupemos que no se investigará (I would like that the origin of the funds to do such trips would be investigated).

¿Influirá el nuevo presidente en la postura sobre Serbia? Lo más seguro es que no. El presidente serbio Boris Serbia's President Boris Tadic speaks at a news conference after a meeting with Kosovo leaders at the European Council headquarters in Brussels November 20, 2007. (Yves Herman/Reuters)Tadic ya ha dicho que espera que Rusia, China y otros defiendan nuevas conversaciones a lo que la Unión Europea y EEUU han dicho que todas las vías de diálogo se han agotado:

Reuters – Serbia’s President expects Russia, China and some other U.N. Security Council members to back further talks on the status of Kosovo, though the West says all avenues of possible compromise have been exhausted.

Lo que sí ha hecho ya Rusia es ordenar una nueva remesa de misiles intercontinentales:

Russia’s military has commissioned another batch of new intercontinental ballistic missiles — nuclear weapons officials boast can penetrate any prospective missile shield, reports said Sunday.

The announcement comes amid tensions between Moscow and Washington over U.S. plans for missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic.

The three new Topol-M missiles are capable of hitting targets more than 6,000 miles away and, mounted on a heavy off-road vehicle, are harder for an enemy to track it down, officials said.

[…]The Topol-M’s chief designer, Yuri Solomonov, has said the missile drops its engines at a significantly lower altitude than earlier designs, making it hard for an enemy’s early warning system to detect the launch.

He said the missiles’ warhead and decoys closely resembled one another in flight, making it extremely difficult for a foe to select the real target from a multitude of false ones.

¿Que por qué es importante? Porque los tres nuevos misiles Topol-M son capaces de alcanzar objetivos a más de 6.000 kilómetros de distancia en un vehículo pesado en movimiento y son más difíciles de interceptar para un enemigo, incluso para el planeado escudo anti-misiles EEUU.

El diseñador de los misiles Topol-M ha añadido que pueden volar muy bajo, lo que les hace especialmente invisibles al radar. A ello se une que su cabeza es muy parecida a cualquier otro misil, lo que les convierte en prácticamente indetectables si son lanzados con varios falsos.

A esto se han añadido las amenazas por parte del Jefe del Estado Mayor ruso, diciendo que si alguna vez se usan los misiles de EEUU en Europa del Este, Rusia podría atacar con sus misiles:

The planned deployment of US interceptor missiles in Poland could trigger a missile strike by Russia if those missiles are ever used, the Russian army’s chief of staff has warned.

“We are talking about the possibility of a retaliatory strike being triggered by the mistaken classification of an interceptor missile,” Yury Baluyevsky said at a press conference broadcast on state television.

Como no puede ser de otra forma, Bielorrusia ha apoyado a Rusia en esta cuestión.

The announcement was made by Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko at a news conference ending President Vladimir Putin’s first official visit in Minsk since 2003. Lukashenko also said he would work with Russia on the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, which limits weapons levels on the continent.

A ello se añade que Rusia ya ha anunciado que no piensa dar ninguna información sobre sus armas a la UE mientras esté congelado el acuerdo de no proliferación.

Russia will not provide data on its Armed Forces stipulated under the CFE treaty at an annual information exchange meeting on Friday, a Russian diplomatic source said.

The signatories to the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty will gather in Austrian capital, Vienna, to exchange documents containing data on the number of main battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, artillery pieces, combat aircraft and attack helicopters deployed in Europe.

“Russia’s moratorium on its participation in the CFE treaty makes this information exchange impossible for us,” said a Russian source at the headquarters of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Y ha amenazado con salirse también del Tratado de Armas Nucleares de Rango Intermedio… por China e Irán (pero ¿estos no eran tannnnnnnnnnnnnnn pacíficos?):

“The Russians are concerned that it only applies to the United States and Russia – so its neighbors, such as China and others even further south such as Iran, develop ballistic missiles that Russia is forbidden from developing,” he explained. “So it says that is unfair, we should reevaluate this treaty and we may have to get out of it if other countries don’t also forswear these missiles.”

Extremadamente peligroso. En una zona altamente explosiva. Y con un tráfico de drogas y de armas creciente en las Repúblicas centro-asiáticas, movidas por las Mafias rusas. Sobre eso ya escribiré, pero es algo de suma importancia para el momento en que vivimos.

Posts anteriores:

  1. Y Putin eligió a su sucesor.
  2. Rusia: denuncias generalizadas de fraude electoral. Y Sarkozy haciendo el CANISIO. Ni siquiera Moratinos ha sido tan tonnnnnnnto (o tan lisssssto…. que los negocios es lo que tienen).
  3. La Rusia neo-soviética una realidad tras arrasar Putin.
  4. Elecciones en Rusia: el resultado arrollador de Putin (II).
  5. Putin: las encuestas preconizan un resultado arrollador.
  6. David “Pepiño” Miliband. El impulsor de la “Unión UE-Rusia-Oriente Medio-Norte de África“… Claro, hmm, todos los problemas del mundo dentro de la UE. ¿Por qué no una unión de todos los planetas? Excluyendo, eso sí, a EEUU, que, como se sabe, son mú malosos…
  7. Rusia quiere ganar la Guerra Fría 30 años después de perderla.
  8. Russia limits election observers and breaks weapons’ control agreement with EU.
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3 comentarios »

  1. Ha resultado de lo más curioso lo de la “oportuna” enfermedad mental del opositor, recuerda métodos nazis

    Comentario por Fin de los Tiempos — diciembre 16, 2007 @ 11:41 pm | Responder

  2. ¿La Guerra Fría no acabó?. Acojona…

    Comentario por Hartos de ZPorky — diciembre 17, 2007 @ 7:21 am | Responder

  3. FDLT: no es el primero ni será el último, lamentablemente. En Rusia si eres opositor estás malo de la cabeza. Esperemos que no tomen ejemplo otros…. 😦

    HDZP: Sí, eso dicen los libros de Historia, ¿no? Yo creo que la Historia está condenada a repetirse porque la gente sigue cometiendo los mismos errores pero en momento distinto… Rusia se ve rodeada de China, la UE y EEUU (por el pacífico), con importantes problemas en las repúblicas centro-asiáticas, así que ha decidido armarse hasta los dientes…

    Lo que no entiendo yo muy bien es por qué entonces ayuda a Irán: es tener otro vecino pirado (este sí y no el opositor a Putin) y encima con su ayuda.

    Comentario por Nora — diciembre 17, 2007 @ 7:29 am | Responder

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